FOLLOWING on from Qantas’ announcement of numerous cutbacks on Tuesday, the airline still maintains they they’re now especially, one of few international airlines able to ride out the global financial crisis, to its fullest extent.
However, Qantas’ credit assessment was downgraded by leading ratings agency Standard & Poor’s, from BBB+ to BBB, after the airline slashed their forecasted full year profit of $500 million, to $100 – 200 million before tax, following a massive downfall in international travel. International visitor arrivals in the first two months of this year were down approximately 3 per cent, driving for only the second time since the airlines’ shares were floated 15 years ago, into the red.
“We have no choice but to lower our profit forecast and make major changes o ensure Qantas can weather the current commercial environment,” Cheif Executive Officer Alan Joyce said. “Qantas revenues have come under severs pressure, so it would be irresponsible to rely solely on stimulating demand through attractive pricing, given the potential for unprecedented reductions in yield.”
Although, fellow ratings agency Moody’s assessment of the airline remained steady, having already been downgraded from Baa1 to Baa2, earlier in February this year. Despite Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the airlines credit rating, arguing Qantas was still left with an investment grade credit rating, an airline spokesman said:
“We are one of only three airlines in the world [Qantas, America's Southwest Airlines, and Germany's Lufthansa] with investment grade credit ratings. Despite the downgrade, which is disappointing but hardly surprising, our aircraft financing facilities are finalised until October 2009, and we have a strong balance sheet, with $3 billion in cash.”
Declaring Qantas’ decision to axe up to 1 750 jobs, cut back on flights, ground 10 planes, and delay the delivery of its next generation of jets as necessary, Mr Joyce said:
“We are experiencing significantly lower demand, particularly in premium classes, and considerable price pressures with extensive sales and discounting by all carriers.”
Qantas pilots and cabin crew are expected to be the prime targets of the airlines job cutbacks, of 1 250 workers, and 500 managers from its 34 000 strong workforce. Meanwhile, there will be a further 5 per cent reduction in flying capacity on Australian domestic routes, which are expected to be the worst hit, and international routes to the US, Britain and South Africa, with the tourism industry now believing a forecast of a 4.1 per cent drop this year, could be optimistic. Bad news for Qantas then, with Ms Zhong, a Standard & Poor’s Credit Analyst, not ruling out another future downgrade of Qantas’ credit, stating:
“… Our view that Qantas’s financial profile will come under significant pressure from the significant deterioration of trading conditions in the airline industry. A further rating downgrade could occur if the industry downturn deepens.”
Although, a Moody’s Senior Analyst, Ian Lewis, argued a stable outlook for Qantas in the near future, stating:
“[the airlines financial profile]… should remain manageable within the rating at this stage of the economic cycle, unless global and domestic conditions deteriorate more sharply… than currently anticipated.”
Seeking to protect as many jobs as possible, both Mr Joyce, and the Transport Workers Union will endeavour to minimise the number of jobs lost, through attrition, redeployment throughout the Qantas group, leave without annual pay, annual and long service leave, the promotion of part time work, and exploration of job sharing.
Aviation analysts were mainly positive in their assessments of the tough cost cutting program announced by Qantas, including the deferrment of four Airbus A380’s, and the negotiation about reducing its scheduled purchase of 15 787 Dreamliners, to 12, with Boeing, and applauded Qantas’ goal to slash capital spending by $1 billion, by June next year.
The medias coverage of Qantas and on the issues reported above, was extremely widespread in both the Australian domestic media, and international media, and in all forms, predominantly newspaper and television. As Qantas is Australia’s only airline aside from Jetstar, a subsidiary of Qantas, and is a major player in the global arena, with thousands of people worldwide at stake, having a 34 000 strong workforce, the medias reporting of Qantas was even more widespread and critical than any other Australian transnational business.
The reporting of Qantas meantime, was unfortunately by some media institutions particularly negative, with many spelling out the end for the airline, through their reporting on Qantas’ slashing of their forecasted profit levels, and announcement of enormous cutbacks. However, what we all must keep in mind, is that whilst Qantas have slashed their forecasted profit by some $300 – $400 million, they are still in surplus, and NOT deficit, which by any measure, under such circumstances and under severe pressure, is a good thing, especially during this global economic downturn, which many argue is just as bad, if not worse than the Great Depression of the 1930’s. At the same time, the other thing to remember is that this is the reason for CEO Alan Joyce’s cutbacks, in order to keep the airline from bankruptcy, which I believe is a message many media institutions held off on.
The Australian though, which I used as my sources for this comparative blog, presented what is in my view, a very fair and balanced report, telling it how it is to their readers, and painting a picture of both sides of the story. Presenting quotes from a credit analyst of leading ratings agency Standard & Poor’s, as to their reason behind their downgrade of Qantas’ credit assessment, and also from fellow ratings agency Moody’s, who too downgraded their assessment of the airline earlier in the year, but whose remains steady for the time being, despite the numerous cutbacks and slashing of forecasted profit levels announced by the airline.
It is noteworthy the difference a day makes in the media, with The Australian’s report on Tuesday 15th April 2009 outlining the reasons for Qantas’ announcement their cutbacks, and slashing of their forecasted profit levels. In The Australian on Wednesday 16th April 2009, the report backtracked, and expanded on its previous report the day prior, outlining in greater detail the cutbacks announced by Qantas, and its potential implications on numerous stakeholders worldwide. This is as the report was to reveal leading ratings agency Standard & Poor’s announcement of their downgrade of the airlines’ credit assessment, which they stated was due to the slashed forecasted profit levels.
SOURCES: The Australian 15th April 2009, and The Australian 16th April 2009